The Euro

Where do you think it will be in 6 months, one year, 5 years?

Gone I hope!
About $1.20. Germany will push Greece out and let it go under, a warning to Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland and France that Frau Merkel desires a little financial Lebensraum. Chastened, everyone gets their shit together. In addition, the US economy is equally pathetic, so it's an exchange rate wash.
in Europe.
With Greece gone (which seems increasingly likely), the euro may well rebound. But its future depends on more general economic recovery.
The Euro is really the New Deutche Mark. As long as Germany stays on board, which is not guaranteed, the Euro will survive. There are not a lot of stable currencies in the world which preserve your wealth. The 2 top ones, $AUS and $CAN exist in too small quantities for mainstream institutional investment, compared to the Euro and the US dollar.
Don't push or allow Greece to leave the euro zone. It would be a disaster for Greece, Europe, the U.S. and markets around the world.
Greece isn't big enough to cause a disaster. Italy is another matter. Spain is too cool to ever cause a disaster. The USA is a disaster right now.
Greece should just follow Iceland. Cancel the debt.
[quote]Greece isn't big enough to cause a disaster. You are wrong.
Greece's entire population is smaller than the state of Illinois. If the state of Illinois when bankrupt, the USA would not collapse. If Greece goes bankrupt it will not be fatal for Europe, but it would still better to just kick Greece out now and let it default independently as a non Euro economy. The worst thing to do is flush away even more German money into Greece to have it default with higher debt. If you know a ship is sinking, you don't load on more gold.
R10, You don't know what you're talking about. Europe's economy is tied to ours. Small countries that are part of the euro zone will greatly affect the European economy should they default. Simply because Greece may not affect your little daily life, does not mean it wouldn't be a disaster for Europe--and affect the U.S. greatly. And affect the average Greek with more than 10 million people. Millions of Greeks are trying to hold their head above water. If you want to blame anyone, then blame the politicians. But don't be so callous and ignorant as if a default would be minor.
Please, R11. The spendthrift, tax-dodging, corrupt and entitled Greeks did it to themselves by joining a currency union they had no ability or intention of honouring. Out they go; back to holiday resort status for grown up Europe.
R11 Tax evasion is a national sport, they retire at 45 and work 3 hours a day. This comes as no surprise.
Northern%20European
Greece's problem is the citizens refuse to pay taxes.
Going to Europe in September so I'm hoping for a good exchange rate.
What no one is talking about is the clause in the EU Treaty that says that any country that becomes a dictatorship is kicked out immediately. It's automatic. That's a very real possibility in Greece and maybe Portugal. What happens then?
Lol, r16, why Portugal? Do you know anything of the political situation of the country? France, with the le Penn woman, is more likely for anything like that to happen - which is not likely at all, for the time being.
A%20Portuguese%20
[quote]Greece isn't big enough to cause a disaster. And Archduke Franz Ferdinand's assassination was no big deal either.
I am so glad I got everything out of the stock market a few months ago. Finally I have good timing.
The Euro sucks. Long live the Drachma
Euro = permanent austerity.
If Greece leaves it will cause a deep rooted psychosis in the European psyche. It will render the most trustworthy of investors impotent, and will result in a mass hysteria, and run on banks. Germany will undoubtedly step up militaristic developments to cope with the shame from losing their economic muscle, while the French will immediately go into a shame spiral and try to make more nuclear weapons. This will incite Russia to flex it's old but still considerable armed forces. This will lead to the Russification of the Ukraine, the Belarus and Servia and Bulgaria and the Balkans Romania will turn toward their iron guard as they've done in past times, and Turkey will of course go on alert. Cyprus will see no advantage aligning with Greece and Britain will up it's armed forces on the Cyprus Island area bases. This will cause Belgian to dis-unify into Flemish and Walloon sects and leave the Dutch and Luxembourgers exposed to financial repercussions with Brussels sprouting independence movements. Already weak democracies, Portugal and Spain will naturally devolve toward Francoism again. Italy is a mess and will undoubtedly go into North Italy being strong and sound centered in Milan. With Southern Italy around Rome and Naples cast into economic ruin. Sicily and Sardinia will go it alone but will be worse than Southern Italia. Only the Nordic nations will be able to stay the course, unless Germany gets rough with Denmark then all bets are off
The US dollar is vastly over inflated because it is the worlds (forced) currency standard - aka Oil is traded only in US Dollars. In 2001, Iraq tried to trade Oil in Euros instead and.... well we know what the USA did to them for that don't we? Eventually China will start trading Oil, Gold and other commodities in Renminbi (Yuan) and the US can't invade China to stop it. Once the world realizes this, the US currency value will drop like a lead balloon to reflect the real economic value of the USA. Think $50US for a carton of eggs. Why does this relate to the Euro? Because the Euro is actually priced at a fair value which reflects Europe's true economic situation. As long a Germany is on board, the Euro will still be relatively stable. Having said that, the US Dollar is insanely propped up far beyond its actual value and depends on being the worlds standard currency, to survive. The US dollar will not be the worlds stand currency for much longer and then, Americans will look at the Euro with admiration of its real market evaluation and relative financial stability. The USA is in for real futureshock - coming soon.
The real disaster will be when the countries go back to their old monetary units, and sorting out who owes whom- and with what. It will take years to sort out.
The euro is already dead. What's happening now is a series of band-aids while the patient bleeds to death elsewhere. Without mutualization of sovereign debt and a banking union, it cannot survive.
The U.S. dollar will remain the world's reserve currency. China is one gigantic bubble that will burst due to inevitable and unfavorable demographics.
r23 predicted 12 of the last 3 economic crises.
Portugal will sing Fado. Greece will fish and drink retsina
Two-tiered system with the "strong" Euro being used by Germany, Austria, Benelux countries, Finland, maybe France, with other countries currently using it being demoted to a "lesser" currency.
You are absolutely right R26. I don't understand why people currently praising China don't see what's coming to that country
Even if the troubled countries return to the drachma/escudo/peseta/lira/punt, their debts will still be denominated in euros. Unless they declare a sovereign default (and destroy their credit ratings for a generation as Argentina did) they're still going to have to pay up in euros or an equivalent amount in the revived local currency. However creditors can refuse the local currency as legal tender and accept only euros.
[quote] Where do you think it will be in 6 months, one year, 5 years? 6 months: In Europe One year: In Europe 5 years: In Europe Glad to help, OP.
The%20DL%20Literalist
6 months- an albatross One year- a rotting albatross Five years- a skeleton of its former self, while the big banksters and politicians live in castles. Well, unless their plans fail and the people revolt. Oh, that's already happening.
The%20euro%20died%204%20years%20ago-%20didn%27t%20you%20get%20the%20memo%3F
R22, interesting analysis and all too plausible.
The Euro will survive, but the insane deficit limits will be triples to provide a more intelligent, Keynesian counter-cyclical approach to macroeconomics. Germany will be dethroned as the core of Europe by a combination of economically successful Latin states and Turkey.
R35, why should the euro survive? It has plunged Europe into economic chaos, bankrupted nations, and cannot be fixed by bureaucrats. What is the point?
R23 agree
99 per cent of posters moaning about the US dollar and Euro facing oblivion will be doing so sitting on a chair, wearing clothes and using a computer/MAC produced in the likes of Indonesia, China, Taiwan, India, Thailand, and Vietnam. The solution to the problem is not that difficult.
[quote]China is one gigantic bubble that will burst due to inevitable and unfavorable demographics. It's already started, both China and India have started outsourcing to the ever poor Bangladesh. We used to outsource to Mexico, which became too expensive, so we moved to India. Now that's too expensive, now it's Bangladesh. Soon we'll be in Africa and then the rest of the world will have caught up. The problem is, equality won't come by raising the standards of the poor nations. They will go up without a doubt, the Westernized nations will also go way down, thus they will be equal within 100 years.
R39, are you wealthier than the average person 100 years ago? The main problem with income inequality and poverty is the fact that governments prop the .01% up at the expense of the rest of us.
From 2002- Our government intervention in the economy and in the private affairs of citizens, and the internal affairs of foreign countries, leads to uncertainty and many unintended consequences. Here are some of the consequences about which we should be concerned. I predict U.S. taxpayers will pay to rebuild Palestine, both the West Bank and the Gaza, as well as Afghanistan. U.S. taxpayers paid to bomb these areas, so we will be expected to rebuild them. Peace, of sorts, will come to the Middle East, but will be short-lived. There will be big promises of more U.S. money and weapons flowing to Israel and to Arab countries allied with the United States. U.S. troops and others will be used to monitor the "peace." In time, an oil boycott will be imposed, with oil prices soaring to historic highs. (Iran?) Current Israeli-United States policies will solidify Arab Muslim nations in their efforts to avenge the humiliation of the Palestinians. That will include those Muslim nations that in the past have fought against each other. (the ongoing EU/USGov supported and funded "Arab Spring") Some of our moderate Arab allies will be overthrown by Islamic fundamentalists. (ditto) The U.N. will continue to condemn, through resolutions, Israeli-U.S. policies in the Middle East, and they will be ignored. Some European countries will clandestinely support the Muslim countries and their anti-Israel pursuits. (duh) China, ironically assisted by American aid, much more openly will sell to militant Muslims the weapons they want, and will align herself with the Arab nations. The United States, with Tony Blair as head cheerleader, will attack Iraq without proper authority, and a major war, the largest since World War II, will result. Major moves will be made by China, India, Russia, and Pakistan in Central Asia to take advantage of the chaos for the purpose of grabbing land, resources, and strategic advantages sought after for years. The Karzai government will fail, and U.S. military presence will end in Afghanistan. An international dollar crisis will dramatically boost interest rates in the United States. (just wait) Price inflation, with a major economic downturn, will decimate U.S. Federal Government finances, with exploding deficits and uncontrolled spending. (have you bought bread, milk, eggs, meat, etc.) Federal Reserve policy will continue at an expanding rate, with massive credit expansion, which will make the dollar crisis worse. Gold will be seen as an alternative to paper money as it returns to its historic role as money. (gold 2002- $300, gold 2012- $1600) Erosion of civil liberties here at home will continue as our government responds to political fear in dealing with the terrorist threat by making generous use of the powers obtained with the Patriot Act. (NDAA, drones, random checks) The draft will be reinstated, causing domestic turmoil and resentment. (just wait, unless liberals wake up and realize the Democrats are just Republicans who pretend to care about the little people) Many American military personnel and civilians will be killed in the coming conflict. (how many dead kids now?) The leaders of whichever side loses the war will be hauled into and tried before the International Criminal Court for war crimes. The United States will not officially lose the war, but neither will we win. Our military and political leaders will not be tried by the International Criminal Court. The Congress and the President will shift radically toward expanding the size and scope of the Federal Government. This will satisfy both the liberals and the conservatives. Military and police powers will grow, satisfying the conservatives. The welfare state, both domestic and international, will expand, satisfying the liberals. Both sides will endorse military adventurism overseas. This is the most important of my predictions: Policy changes could prevent all of the previous predictions from occurring. Unfortunately, that will not occur. In due course, the Constitution will continue to be steadily undermined and the American Republic further weakened. During the next decade, the American people will become poorer and less free, while they become more dependent on the government for economic security. The war will prove to be divisive, with emotions and hatred growing between the various factions and special interests that drive our policies in the Middle East. Agitation from more class warfare will succeed in dividing us domestically, and believe it or not, I expect lobbyists will thrive more than ever during the dangerous period of chaos. I have no timetable for these predictions, but just in case, keep them around and look at them in 5 to 10 years. Let us hope and pray that I am wrong on all accounts. If so, I will be very pleased.
Euro is stylish. Dollar looks like a cumrag!
Who are you calling cumrag?
Wales%20%28aka%20Cymraeg%29
cumrag - a rag or cloth used to wipe up excess ejaculation
Prince of Cumrag
r41's cutting and pasting into every thread makes me weary.
Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Mohamed El-Erian called the recent declines in purchasing manager indexes in Europe and Asia “frightening” and said the world economy is suffering its severest slowdown since the global recession ended in 2009, reports Bloomberg. “This is a serious, synchronized slowdown,” El-Erian said in an interview today. El-Erian is correct. He may not know what is behind it, but he sees the economic data. For the record, there is slowed, little or no monetary growth in the eurozone, China and the United States. Because of this, a global stock market and economic crash is very likely, probably before the US elections. There is a small chance the downturn can be reversed if the Big Three central banks begin a huge money printing campaign, pronto, but there is no indication at this time that any of them are going to open the monetary spigots. Watch out below.
http://goo.gl/d8Xo6
"There is a small chance the downturn can be reversed if the Big Three central banks begin a huge money printing campaign, pronto, but there is no indication at this time that any of them are going to open the monetary spigots." QEinfinity, plus the ECB and the BoJapan all announcing they will be printing trillions of dollars over the next few years, destroying the savings of the middle class, means they are panicked. They know they can't keep "kicking the can" but as long as The Elite can get THEIR money out they don't care about the bottom 99.99%.
Obama should have nationalized the banks in 2008, for at least 10 years.
I thought the Greek debt issue was fixed? The country’s main banks are considering requesting additional funds for their recapitalization. Senior bank officials say that the rapid deterioration in financial conditions caused by the back-to-back elections in mid-2012 has led to a greater increase in nonperforming loans than originally foreseen in the BlackRock report a year ago. They add that banks should proceed to greater share capital increases in order to respond to the new reality. Ernst & Young estimates that nonperforming loans in Greece approached 24 percent of all loans at the end of 2012. The bond buyback dealt another great blow to the credit sector that has made a revision of the capital requirements necessary. The Bank of Greece had estimated that operating profits for National, Alpha, Eurobank and Piraeus for the 2012-14 period would amount to 11.09 billion euros, which had been excluded from the calculation of the lenders’ capital needs. One of the main sources of those future revenues would have been the interest from the bonds amounting to 16 billion euros that banks had in their portfolios. However, the so-called voluntary sale of the bonds entailed a loss of those revenues for the banks.